Iran’s tight grip on the Strait of Hormuz has caused oil prices to surge, shaking the world economy. These economic and geopolitical instabilities not only have a sharp sting on petrol prices, butare also changing how people evaluate their spending. With a recession looming, it is only a matter of time before marketing budgets tighten and campaigns dwindle across the Asia-Pacific.
We asked four of leading fractional chief marketing officers about their thoughts on marketing models during a recession – how it will be impacted by the war in Iran, the cost-of-living crisis influencing consumer behaviour and whether there is even an appetite for non-essential spending.
Changes in consumer behaviour
Pip Stocks, marketing consultant and CEO of The Startup Muse said in 2014, she ran a study looking at how people made everyday purchasing decisions.
“What we found was that a surprising number of purchases happened almost unconsciously. People bought the same brands, in the same stores, with very little active thought.”
“We described it as autopilot consumption,” adds Stocks.
“But pressure changes behaviour. When households feel financial strain, habits get questioned. Assumptions get revisited. Purchases that once happened automatically suddenly require justification.”
Human behaviour is changing in the face of inflation
According to Dr Anna Harrison, keynote speaker, founder of RAMMP and inventor of the ADORE Process™ (the only patented methodology for measuring trust in the buying journey) believes you need an equal dose of realism and hope when building your marketing models to withstand the perils of a recession.
“While I personally am an optimist, even for my rosy-coloured outlook it’s hard to ignore the prevailing winds: interest rate rises, supply chain disturbances, wars, escalating costs of power and petrol – all of these factors have ripple effects that are going to make their mark on your brand this year.”
“I can, with a good degree of certainty, tell you how your customers will change their buying behaviour as we enter recessionary conditions,” Harrison adds.
“The reason for this is that as humans, we behave in quite regular and predictable ways, and as anyone who appreciates AI and computer science will tell you, a pattern is a wonderful thing. A pattern allows us to develop systems to optimise situations – indeed, we used these patterns in buying behaviour to build RAMMP to help brands navigate the uncertainties of pandemic and recessionary conditions with more confidence.”
Common marketing blunders make in uncertain times
Geoff Main, marketing director and founder at Passionberry Marketing says “Consumers are looking for ways to balance budgets without sacrificing quality of life. They might eat out less, butspend more on premium groceries. They may delay holidays, but invest in better at-home experiences. They may switch brands in low-attachment categories, while staying loyal in high-trust ones.”
“This creates a more complex market than a traditional downturn,” adds Main.
Such complexities mean the familiar marketing habits quickly lose their effectiveness.
“Blanket discounting, for example, can erode brand value without addressing what consumers are really looking for: a clear reason to buy,” he says.
“Broad brand messaging that lacks practical utility also struggles to land when people are scrutinising every purchase.”
Another common mistake is assuming all consumers are cutting back in the same way, when in reality the market is fragmenting, with some households trading down while others remain willing to spend on things they truly value.
When people are actively weighing trade-offs, brands that make decisions simple and transparent will always have the advantage.
A moment to recalibrate campaign strategy
Fractional CMO Fabrizia Roberto, warns marketers that this is not a moment to retreat, but a moment to recalibrate. When the environment strips things back, what’s left is the core of the discipline – understanding people, meeting them where they are, and creating something that genuinely earns its place in their lives.
“That’s always been the job, it’s just harder to shy away from it now,” adds Roberto.
Consumers are also becoming more deliberate in how they research and compare purchases.
Main asserts, “As financial pressure increases, decision-making slows and evaluation increases. Buyers spend more time understanding options, comparing alternatives and justifying purchases. This changes how marketing needs to work.”
“In growth markets, marketing is often about persuasion. In constrained markets, it becomes about justification. And, this is where many brands get caught.”
“Discounting is often the first response to economic pressure. But blanket discounting can erode brand value, compress margins and train customers to wait for promotions. Instead, brands that perform well in constrained environments tend to shift toward value framing.”
That means emphasising durability, cost-per-use, efficiency, time savings or bundled value, as opposed to simply lowering price.
What marketing metrics hit the mark during economic downturns?
In this environment, the role of marketing becomes more grounded. Helping people make decisions becomes more useful than trying to influence them from a distance.
Roberto believes marketing during tough times hones in on four key metrics: value, context, consistency and transparency.
“Value needs to be easy to grasp. If someone has to work to understand why something is worth it, they’ll move on.”
“Context matters more than static audience definitions. The same person behaves differently depending on what they’re buying and what trade-offs they’re managing that day.”
“Consistency carries more weight. Every touchpoint becomes part of how a brand is evaluated, not just the campaign.”
“And, transparency builds confidence. When people are comparing options more actively, clarity wins.”
On the other hand, some lazy marketing habits don’t survive this kind of scrutiny.
“Messaging that feels disconnected from real life loses traction quickly. Complex pricing erodes trust. Assumed loyalty becomes fragile,” adds Roberto.
When people are more deliberate, they’re also more open to brands that make their lives easier, that understand and respect their constraints and that deliver reliably.
Helping someone feel confident in their choice is incredibly valuable. Showing up as a meaningful brand that truly cares about the consumer is where the magic happens.
Final takeaways: Six things matter more than ever in marketing
If we drill down to what the marketer needs in order to thrive in times of global uncertainty, Pip Stocks believes these six things will act as a bible moving forward:
1. Be crystal clear on value
Consumers want to understand exactly why something is worth the money.
2. Show practical usefulness
Products that save time, reduce hassle or genuinely improve life rise to the top.
3. Remove friction by showing clear intent
Complex pricing, confusing offers and unnecessary effort are quickly rejected.
4. Offer flexibility
Smaller packs, entry offers and adjustable subscriptions help consumers stay engaged.
5. Segment by financial mindset
The two-wallet economy means customers are not experiencing the market in the same way.
6. Stay close to your customers
Really understand the needs of the customer on a deep and personal level. What people cut first – and what they refuse to give up – rarely appears in dashboards. It shows up in conversations.
[ABOUT THE EXPERTS]
Pip Stocks, Director, Pip Stocks Consulting
Pip Stocks is an entrepreneur, brand strategist and board director with a background in marketing and psychology. After a decade in London refining her brand and consumer expertise, she built and scaled BrandHook into a three-city consultancy helping major Australian brands rediscover their customers and reignite growth. She then founded Hearsay, an AI platform designed to capture and operationalise customer conversations.
Today, Pip is founder and CEO of The Startup Muse, an AI-powered platform that bridges the gap between female founder ideas and real-life businesses. Her strengths lie in brand strategy creation and revitalisation, CX operationalisation and transforming founder-led ideas into scalable, insight-driven brands. She mentors first-time entrepreneurs, particularly women in tech and AI, and is an advocate for gender equity and neurodiversity.
Dr Anna Harrison, Founder, RAMMP
Dr. Anna Harrison is Australia’s foremost consumer interaction specialist and ‘Brand Relationships Therapist’. She is a built-form Architect and digital technologist who has spent a lifetime navigating how humans engage with the world.
A published Author, Speaker and Academic, Dr Anna pioneered the ADORE ProcessTM; an evidence-based process that draws parallels between romantic love and consumer decision-making. She has systematically helped hundreds of businesses increase their marketing ROI by up to 40% and continues her work in the media, advocating conscious commercial engagements by demystifying brand/consumer relationships and their impact on consumption patterns, environmental sustainability, and individual contentment.
Fabrizia Roberto, Fractional CMO, Founder, fabriziaroberto.com
Fabrizia Roberto is a Fractional CMO and founder with over 15 years of leadership in marketing, communications and innovation. Her career spans agency to media owner, insurer to insurtech. She led a high-performing marketing team of 30 at a major insurer, then co-founded and ran an insurtech startup, building the brand, raising venture funding and setting strategy from the ground up.
As a Fractional CMO, Fabrizia helps scale-ups move from marketing chaos to clarity by aligning brand, team and go-to-market strategy. She partners with CEOs, CMOs and leadership teams to sharpen positioning, optimise budgets and build scalable marketing functions, bridging marketing, product and UX to ensure the customer experience delivers on the brand promise.
Geoff Main, Marketing Director/Founder, Passionberry Marketing
Geoff Main has over 20 years of marketing and commercial experience managing creative agencies, leading multiple global projects and working with large scale budgets to deliver client results.
Geoff’s experience and consulting work engages him with businesses across FMCG, Manufacturing, Services, Startups, Marketplaces, Sport and Tourism. Geoff has created and restructured brands by integrating existing business models and creating NPD and large scale marketing campaigns. Geoff’s creative communication method allows brands to create authentic connections and share their story across a range of platforms.
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